Betting history says Trump will beat Joe Biden
We often hear in the news these days that Joe Biden is the heavy favorite to win the election of 2020. Leading in nearly every poll, even the ones posted on what are considered to be “Conservative” news channels like FOX News. Well there is one group of people that have accurately predicted several major events that are now suggesting that President Trump will win the 2020 election.
They guessed that Kamala Harris would become Biden’s VP, check. They guessed that Boris Johnson would become the new PM of Great Britain, check. And they accurately predicted Trump’s shock 2016 victory, yuge check. No I am not talking about some sophisticated Ivy League think tank or any of those people on the TV that claim to be political pundits, I am talking about the people engaged in betting money on political events.
Allow me to explain. There was a very interesting article posted to oddschecker.com that highlighted how gamblers have accurately predicted these major events even when the actual betting odds were saying the opposite was more likely to happen.
You see, Trump was NOT the official favorite to win the 2016 election, the odds said Hillary would win. Yet despite that fact, about 61% of the bettors put their money on Trump to win. They were right. When it came to Brexit, 73% of bettors successfully predicted that Britain would leave the EU. They were right. Then the majority of bettors put their money on Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister of Great Britain, and yet again, they were right.
Now in 2020, 59% of political bettors are saying that President Trump will win the 2020 election, even though at the moment the official odds are predicting a Biden win.
They conclude that if the recent betting trends continue, we will see another Trump win in 2020. I myself am far more inclined to listen to the people who are willing to put actual money down on their belief, as opposed to the people on TV who get paid to spout their beliefs.
Of course some of this can be attributed to the fact that people like to bet on an underdog. As anyone who has ever placed a bet with a bookie knows, you will win much more if you bet on the underdog as opposed to the favorite, but I still think that most of these people actually believe President Trump will win because he is genuinely a good leader. Obviously, I agree with them.
So if all goes well, we could easily be looking at 4 more beautiful years of Trump as our President!